LevIns weekly slingshot

The US is strongly expected to commence a "soft landing" - not on the chart below but a separate point is that the peak US unemployment now projected at the time of peak rates is only 4%, which is nothing. Europe, on the other hand, is doing worse than previously expected, with Germany dipping into a recession this year.

What about geopolitical risks? Going back to 1985, no non-market-driven event has ever created a long-term market disturbance. Repricing of certain sectors - yes (such as defence stocks after Sep 11), but overall the market is very resilient to anything that effects the humans and less so the traders' wallets (sort of sadly so but it's a prime example of "money talks")

Contributed by Mary Anne Omaz